Well the first significant hurricane of the season is upon us. Hurricane Dorian will pass off the north coast of the Dominincan Republic today. The reason all of us sailboats are here in Luperon is because this sheltered bay is the best hurricane hole in the entire Caribbean, but of course we all still worry a little bit. Will our moorings hold? Will we get a direct hit this year? If yes… how bad will it be? Will other boats break free and smash into our our secured boat and cause damage?
The American media which is brilliant at focusing the sheep’s attention on anything but the evil in their parliament has already been kicking up quite a media fuss about this horrifying weather event. Be afraid of the wind and look nowhere else.
So my American sailor friends were the first to be aware of this coming hurricane and send me the first warning, Lexi quick secure your extra anchors and stock up on food fast, try not to be scared. I have been at anchor in 50 knots of wind before and HATED it. Lexi the big chicken scares easily, so I appreciate the heads up.
So of course I find my cell phone and check the weather apps to see this unholy monster for myself. I needed to know if he was coming here? How afraid should I be?
But look at the first image above where these winds are crossing north of Puerto Rico last night… it is barely even a storm. I have sailed in storms like that many times, it is no big deal at all.
So what is all the fuss about? I just could not see what all the panic is about? Why on earth would the American media be kicking up such a fuss over something so small and insignificant? Why are my sailor friends so worried for me?
All the available information says this will barely even be a wind event for us here in Luperon at all. Not even worth noticing. So I had passed these fearful warnings off as just more American media hype. I had discarded all warning or concerns as unwarranted and continued about my day yesterday completely unconcerned.
Yesterday though as I was in Yoga class up on the hill overlooking the bay I could not help but notice the flurry of activity among the local fishing fleet. All of the rusty old 60-70 foot commercial fishing boats had pulled off the government dock and were ramming the boats up into the mangroves.
This behaviour really puzzled me. My bewilderment only increased even further when I saw the fishing fleets from Peurto Plata and ports further east come motoring into the bay for shelter as well. Yesterday more and more boats kept piling into our sheltered little bay seeking protection from something, but what?
One of the things I have learned in my few years as a sailor is that fishermen have earned my respect the world over for their seamanship. They spend more time on the Ocean than anyone and they know full well all the various faces of mother natures moods. So if the local fishermen are taking extreme precautions like this maybe it would unwise not to heed their example. Maybe they know something I do not know?
So yesterday after Yoga class I spent more time searching for better information to try and figure out what I am missing? I wanted to figure out what is making the local fishermen go to these lengths to secure their hulking work boats into the tress. What causes their hulking heavy beasts so much fear? I have never been in a hurricane and I am sure they are awful, but there is no sign of any hurricane coming here. Could it be severe swell or surges?
I know it would be extremely unwise of me to ignore the experience of the locals, but I puzzled all day over this mystery.
It came to me last night as I sat on the deck of WildChild and watched the locals securing their boats. I always rant and rave about how often the weather guessers are wrong. If you think more about the environmental conditions surrounding me the stage is set for a hurricane, it is why they call it hurricane season. There is much potential energy stored in the billions of gallons of warm ocean water at this latitude. Maybe the locals know not to TRUST the weather guessers. Maybe they know the forecasts could easily and quickly be proven wrong as Dorian might easily react unpredictably to the warm potential energy of the surrounding waters.
Maybe what they know is that Hurricanes are literally a force of nature and maybe they know hurricanes, by their very nature, are unpredictable. Maybe the locals are wise enough to know… if in doubt… err on the side of caution… because getting caught unprepared by a hurricane would catastrophically suck the big one. I have never seen a hurricane in person but these people have. Maybe the price of being prepared is far less than the price of being unprepared. Perhaps caution is the wise move here.
As I have been carefully watching the course size and track of this hurricanes predicted trajectory change every single update I have begun to realize just how hard to the weather guessers are trying to get this right… but how how the task actually is. Hurricanes really are unpredictable, and that is the wisdom that the locals already know.
It turns out Florida really does have something to worry about from Dorian. What is fascinating to watch is the changes in the predictions. Every single update each 8 hours is giving different predictions.
What is fascinating about Dorian is that if you watch its track it seems like it is just going to go north and never hit shore… BUT it gets east of those warm shallow waters in the Bahamas and makes a sharp left turn doubles in size and starts bearing down on Miami Florida.
Poor Marsh harbor Bahamas (one of my favorite places in the world) is going to take this beast smack in the face. Dorian will pick up energy and size in the Bahamas and just pummel poor Miami Florida. I think maybe I should be praying for the safety of my sailor friends in Florida more than they need to pray for me.
Everything here in Luperon is just hunky dory today.
WildChild is safe…
….and we are having a lovely day…
but lets see what the next hurricane brings…
Captain Lexi… the vigilant…
.